Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

How Much Did Each Vote Cost?

Without a doubt, 2016 will go down as one of the most unique and surprising elections in American history. With the votes now counted, we can start to ask the question, how much did each candidate pay for your vote?

(NOTE: the final financial reports won't be available until Jan. 31, 2017. As such, the figures for the 2016 election only represent what is known at this time, and the final amounts raised by each campaign will end up being higher. However, I don't foresee the proportion of cost-per-vote between candidates to vary much beyond what it already is.)

The billionaire won the election against a well entrenched establishment candidate, and both of them struggled to gain a few percentages over one another in scattered states while two lesser known candidates vied for the nation's top job as well. But before we look at the results of 2016, let's review the previous two election cycles.


In 2008, you had veteran politician (and military veteran) Republican Sen. John McCain go up against a relative new comer, Sen. Barack Obama. For the entire 2008 cycle, $1,681,000,000 was raised. The Democratic Party raised a little over $1 billion of that, while the Republican raised $606 million. In terms of the two nominees, Obama out-raised McCain, $748 million to $351 million.

Click for larger view.

This means that Obama spent $10.76 per vote and McCain spent $5.85 per vote. Overall, 32.5% of all funds came from donations of $200 or less. The top bracket of donations made up 22.2%.


The 2012 election was less expensive, with $1,325,000,000 raised. Once again, the Republican Party nominee was out-raised, $772 million to Romney's $450 million. The Libertarian and Green parties also raised millions. The Libertarian Party's candidate, Gary Johnson, raised $2.8 million and Jill Stein of the Green Party raised $1.2 million. Overall, 46.8% of all funds came from donations of $200 or less. The top bracket of donations made up 26%.

Click for larger view.

In terms of $ per vote: Obama spent $11.71/vote, Romney spent $7.38/vote, Johnson spent $2.19/vote, and Stein spent $2.55/vote.



This brings us to 2016.


2016 was the year of money, with both main candidates having a net worth of over $200 million for the first time in American history. This year's election was supposed to be the most expensive ever, with over $2 billion raised through direct campaign and party channels. The reality was a bit different. While there were countless millions (some say billions) worth of "free media" spent on Hillary and Trump (in terms of covering their full speeches, campaign stops etc.), the real figure will likely never be known. What is known is what the law requires. According to the FEC, $1.3 billion was raised by all candidates by the end of the October reporting quarter. (Remember, the total amounts won't be released until 2017)

Hillary Clinton raised $498 million, while billionaire Donald Trump raised $248 million (of that, $56 million came from Trump himself). Gary Johnson raised $11.2 million (the most for a 3rd party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992) and Jill Stein raised $3.5 million. Overall, 55.4% of all funds came from donations of $200 or less. The top bracket of donations made up 23%.

Click for larger view.

The cost-per-votes are: $7.97 for Clinton, $4.04 for Trump, $2.61 for Johnson, and $2.67 for Stein. 

I also want to look at the primaries. Clinton raised $328.6 million by the end of July while Bernie Sanders raised $236.5 million. Clinton received 16.9 million primary votes, Sanders 13.2 million. This equals $19.44/vote for Hillary and $17.91/vote for Sanders.

On the Republican side, Trump's main rival was Sen. Ted Cruz. By the end of July, Trump had raised $128 million and Cruz raised $92.8 million. Trump won slightly over 14 million votes for a cost-per-vote of $9.14, and Cruz had a cost of $11.98/vote with 7.8 million votes.

This election had a turnout rate of 53.6% which was the lowest voter turnout since the 2000 Bush/Gore election (which also resulted in the winner losing the popular vote). In terms of overall vote count, it's similar to the 2004 election of Bush/Kerry.

What does all of this mean? Simply spending huge sums of money is no guarantee of winning an election. I think it definitely goes a long way towards dispelling the notion that you can "buy" a place in the Oval Office.

--Jacob Bogle, Nov. 16, 2016
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Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Four Years Under Obama, a Graphic View

In 2008 Obama was elected president by a 10 million vote margin. He came into office promising to not only stop the economic collapse but reverse it, end the wars, lower taxes and energy prices, protect the environment and generally save our nations future. Then, despite having a negative approval rating as well as the vast majority of the people thinking the country was on the wrong track he was re-elected again in 2012 by only 51.1%, with a winning vote margin of less than half that of 2008.

When I looked at every economic metric prior to the 2012 election it looked as though Obama would easily lose, after all in terms of real numbers the country was no better off and in some cases was worse off than in 2008. But, he was elected. I'd like you take a look at these charts which cover everything from gas prices to deficits to military spending to gold prices.

The last 4 years have not been good and there is no reason to expect the next 4 will be better as a result of his policies. If things do recover it will be in spite of his actions, not because of them.

This first chart comes from Real Clear Politics and shows that American's have thought the country was on the wrong track in 2009 and continues to be on the wrong track.
(click images to view larger)


Next, let us look at the U6 unemployment rate. This shows that the U6 rate is 0.2% higher today than it was when Obama took office. Effectively, the unemployment rate hasn't budged and in terms of real numbers the Obama administration has been flat out lying.

Each month hundreds of thousands of people enter the work-force for the first time so even if Obama "saved or added" 4 million "new" jobs in 3 years the unemployment rate would not move and may even rise simply because the level of job creation doesn't even meet population growth.



This next graph comes straight from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It shows the labor participation rate which is defined as the percentage of eligible workers aged 16 and above who are currently employed. As you can see the percentage of people working has dropped continually.


The next series of graphs will focus on government spending.

Here we have the amount of revenue the government has received each year in the form of income taxes, social security taxes, tariffs, fees and so forth. You'll notice a marked increase between 2010-11 and a continual rise expected through 2017. If you look at the projections you'll see that revenue jumps from $2.4 trillion in 2012 to nearly $4 trillion in 2017. That is among the fastest jump in history over a 5 year period outside of wartime and is based on new taxes from Obama's policies. This comes from the Tax Policy Center. 



This shows the deficit year-over-year. While the amount of deficit each year tends to fall we have still spent between $800 billion to over $1 trillion each and every year more than the government brings in.


It's a well known fact that ALL of the supposed cuts proposed by both parties are not real cuts but rather, cuts in proposed spending increases. When ever Obama talks about cutting spending or saving money he's talking about using a slight-of-hand "fuzzy math" trick. You see, each year the government gets an automatic spending increase based on a number of factors and when people talk about cutting or saving they're talking about having a smaller increase, not a real cut to a spending level lower than the previous year.

The more government spends the less the private sector has and thus the less you have. Taking money from you to spend on failed billion dollar solar programs, trillion dollar wars and even the estimated $1 billion spent solely on Secret Service protection will not save the economy, it hurts it. All of the rhetoric coming from Obama such as "if we cut spending you'll put people out of jobs" is nothing but fear mongering. Yes, some in government or in companies propped up by government (which mean they'll always be a drain) might lose their jobs but businesses will have more money to spend to expand and hire and those government employees will be able to find a private job where they actually do something. When WWII ended people screamed and worried that if the government cut spending millions of people who had been employed for the war would go without work, food or shelter. When the government finally cut spending, all of those government employees found private work and our economy took off faster than in any other time.

Here is a graph showing the amount spent on defense. Obama promised an end to constant warfare and to use that "saved" money to fix the economy and put it back into the hands of everyday people. Obviously, he forgot to keep that promise.


Next we have the debt. Everyone knows we're in debt and the debt is rising. Unfortunately few in Congress want to actually fix it. In 2008 Obama promised to cut the debt by trillions, instead he now claims that even cutting government spending by $85 billion this year (less than 3%) would be devastating.


Once again, you can see the rate of increase is much faster than in the past and between 2008-2013 increases by nearly 80%.

Just as anyone with a credit card must pay interest on their debt so must the government pay interest on the debt.

Each year we spend at least $200 billion on interest payments. That is more than twice the amount the government spends on education each year. If Obama really cared about education he would cut our debt so we could use the savings in interest payments on education. Not that spending more on education increases the actual education or testing scores of children (as I pointed out in a previous post) but it does show you where Obama's priorities are.

The final government related graph comes from the Heritage Foundation and it shows the tax rate as a percentage of GDP from 1975 to 2055. If you look at the mid point of the graph you'll see a huge increase in the tax rate. That time period corresponds to the Obama administration.


I guess Obama wasn't serious when he said he'd cut the overall tax rate, make the tax code simpler and not raise taxes on average Americans. Let's not forget the $80 a month or more you're probably missing each month from taxes you didn't have to pay this time last year.

Now I'd like to focus on general economic factors like the dollar index, precious metal prices and gas prices.

 The US Dollar Index is a way to measure the strength and stability of the dollar. When it drops, the dollar is weaker and when it rises the dollar is stronger. The entire purpose of the Federal Reserve is to provide a stable dollar and stable prices and Obama won the election by promising the strengthen our economy.


Does that look stable to you? Not only is the dollar unstable the Index is actually lower today than in 2009.

Of course there are other factors that lead to higher prices but there's no getting around the simple fact that a weak dollar means higher prices.

Here is a graph showing the national average price of gas. From GasBuddy.com


In Feb. 2009 the price of gas was about $1.90/gal, today it's pushing $4/gal.

This shows the price of silver from 2000 to today.

You can easily see the jump in prices since Obama has been in office. This might be good news to those who invest in precious metals but it's a bad sign for the overall economy.

And finally, the price of gold.

By any measure the last 4 years have not been good. We may be stuck with Obama for the next 4 years but we do have a chance to grab a hold of the Senate and place more people in the House who truly understand that more government is not the answer. This post has been focused on Obama but the truth is these problems have roots in both the Democrat and Republican parties.

Let us make sure that 4 years from now we're not looking back on a country that completely fell off the cliff when we knew beyond any doubt that the only answer is smaller government, free markets and a more constitutional approach to all things domestic and international.

--Jacob Bogle

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Gun Control



(Originally published on Dec. 19, 2012. Updated on Oct. 3, 2015 with new information)

On Dec. 14, 2012, a young gunman went to a school and killed 26 people, mostly children under the age of 8. And on Oct. 1, 2015, a man entered a community college and shot 19. Since 1776 there have been over 200 school shootings (including individual suicides at school); in 2013 there were 26, in 2014 there were 43, and by October 2015 there had been 19. Since 2013, 44% of those shootings involved more than one person. There have also been mass shootings at businesses, clubs, and elsewhere.

In times of crisis, people often look to government to fix the problem. They assume there was a failure in the law or that perhaps we have too much freedom and for our own sake we should pass further legislation to protect us from ourselves.

There is no doubt that evil and unhinged people exist in the world and that guns, particularly modern guns, allow those people to harm and kill greater numbers of innocent people than ever possible before. The anti-gun/pro-gun control lobbies point to countries with strict gun-control laws and even total bans on arms outright and then compares their crime rates with those in the United States as “proof” that gun-control is the only answer.


Guns, simply defined as a barrel that uses gunpowder to propel a projectile, have existed for over 1,000 years and like so many other inventions of man, have become a part of everyday life, at least until recently. A gun can be used for hunting, self-defense, war, target practice, to commit crimes, as collector items, and at times as the last defense of a people against a tyrannical government; a final guarantee of freedom.

Many say that guns generally have no place in modern society and that, for the West at least, the notion of needing them to fend off an evil government is…quaint, if not insane. Of course modern world history is replete with examples of a population needing arms to ward off and overthrow a repressive regime (Germany, Soviet Russia, China, North Korea, Cambodia, etc.) Clearly, the issue is complicated and emotionally charged.

For a moment, let us set aside the argument for guns as a last defense and focus on gun crimes as they relate to gun control.

It is true that strict gun control or bans, can limit the number of gun related crimes. However, if you look at the logic of criminality you will find that the law in and of itself means very little to criminals, after all, to commit a crime is by definition to ignore the law.

The UK has passed a number of laws, beginning in 1903, which have led to the near extinction of the modern firearm in the country, the main exceptions being antiques and incredibly strict hunting licenses. However, the people of the UK still maintain over 4 million firearms. In 2009 the number of gun deaths was 138. The number of homicides (by any method) was 724. So it’s easy to see that having a gun alone does not make for a violent populace and that non-gun related homicides far outweigh those committed with a gun. If we look at the broader trend in the UK, particularly in cities, gun crime is on the rise. In 2010 gun crimes in London were up 48%. And while the total number of gun crimes is down compared to when gun ownership was less restricted, it is evident that laws and restrictions largely apply to law abiding citizens --to those who wouldn't have committed any crime to begin with.

Criminals will always find ways around the law, they will find ways to commit their crimes and will fuel a black market. And unlike the US, the United Kingdom lacks a central constitution and there are no inherent rights to begin with, only things which, through law, have been deemed “not illegal.” Remember, the UK comes form a history of authoritarian monarchy, whose genocidal policies against the Scots and Irish still impact the region to this day.

Let’s take a look at another European country, Switzerland, which has the 3rd highest rate of gun ownership on the planet. In Switzerland they rely on a trained militia rather than a standing army to defend their borders and civilian gun ownership stands at 45.7%, which translates into 3.4 million guns. In 2010 there were 40 gun related homicides and 53 homicides in total, which is down approx. 40% since 1998. How is it that so many guns can exist and yet have so few gun related crimes? In fact, Switzerland has one of the lowest crimes rates in the world, all the while having the 3rd highest gun ownership rate and a relaxed drug policy.

The cry for greater government control is always greatest when there has been a tragedy. It is very unfortunate that people choose times of heartbreak to push for less liberty and ignore incredibly important factors: personal responsibility and morality, mental health, and broken communities.

I’d like to give you a comparison. Cars and roads are among the more highly regulated and controlled aspects of our society and yet more people die from car accidents than from guns. In fact, since 1980, there have been over 1.3 million deaths on government regulated roads, in government regulated cars, all operated by government regulated drivers. Where is the outcry in this? Where are the calls to ban mass murdering automobiles which can speedily careen into crowded places? As silly as that may sound, the analogy stands. For bit more context, more people die from poisoning each year (48,545) or drug overdoses (43,785) than they do from gun related deaths (of all sorts), which according to the CDC was 10.6 people per 100,000.

From the Pew Research Center, "Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak"

And while the overall trend since 1981 has been fewer homicides as a result of gun violence, even after President Clinton signed the Federal Assault Weapons Ban in 1994 there were still dozens of school shootings resulting in 122 deaths and many other injuries before the law expired in 2004.

You see, gun ownership is not the problem, it never has been. The problem lies with a population disarmed, a population so afraid they would rather give up all control to a government then take the necessary steps to learn self-defense, and the problem lies with a country that has an appalling track record when it comes to helping those citizens with mental illness (those with diagnosed mental illnesses rarely go out killing people, but killing out of hatred or because the shooter feels discarded by society does intersect with mental health and the need for intervention is real).

There is an interesting meme on-line that states “Why are women taught how to prevent a rape instead of men being taught not to rape?” The same concept can be applied to guns and crimes in general. We live in a culture that glorifies death and violence. It is codified by our government with the killing of literally thousands of innocent civilians overseas, all as a matter of "foreign policy." It is blessed by popular media. It is encouraged by parents allowing 12 and 13 year olds to play games and watch movies filled with it. It is often over-looked and poorly punished. We see time and time again people convicted of killing and other horrible crimes getting only a handful of years in prison (or less).

Why not force government to end the double standard in their own actions? Why not force the courts to offer up severe and lasting punishment to those engaging in violent crimes? Why not recognize that many citizens suffer from mental illness and not be afraid to reach out and help them, instead of ignoring them until one out of a million explodes?

There is no single cause or reason among the perpetrators and no panacea to solve it all, but the major cause of it continuing is society's and our government's failure to understand that it's usually a combination of factors and that we must take a comprehensive look at it in order to help solve it. Jumping onto guns is nothing but a cop-out, an emotional reaction that does little to address the situation.

Looking at the legal issue

The 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution states “A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.”

One segment of the gun-control lobby asserts that the 2nd Amendment applies only to militias (the military) and that private gun ownership is not covered. Even if we ignore the context in which the 2nd was written, there have been multiple court cases which emphatically refute that claim.
In District of Columbia v. Heller (2008) the Supreme Court ruled:

(A)The Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia, and to use that arm for traditionally lawful purposes, such as self-defense within the home.
(B)The “militia” comprised all males physically capable of acting in concert for the common defense.
(C) The response [of writing the 2nd] was to deny Congress power to abridge the ancient right of individuals to keep and bear arms
.
And further, (D) does not limit the right to keep and bear arms to militia purposes.

The term “militia” means “It is undoubtedly true that all citizens capable of bearing arms constitute the reserved military force or reserve militia of the United States as well as of the States, and in view of this prerogative of the general government, as well as of its general powers, the States cannot, even laying the constitutional provision in question out of view, prohibit the people from keeping and bearing arms, so as to deprive the United States of their rightful resource for maintaining the public security, and disable the people from performing their duty to the general government.” This comes from the Supreme Court case Presser v. Illinois (1886).


Another argument is that the Founders could never have conceived of an automatic assault rifle and that the 2nd only applies to “muskets”, in other words, very basic, single shot weapons. One must then extend the logic to all parts of the Constitution, to wit, the First Amendment only applies to verbal speech and press using a printing press, the Fourth only protects from searches of a person’s physical home (making the NSA domestic spying program totally acceptable), and so on. That notion is, in a word, absurd. There is no doubt people use guns to commit crimes, however, if we look at all the numbers, around 50% of all gun deaths in the US are suicides (which is a crime). Outlawing suicide has had little effect it seems.

Gun ownership is not only an “ancient right” but also the final protection of an individual and of the general population against all crimes, be they a robber or a tyrannical government. War is perhaps the most visible but oft ignored crime. It is estimated that wars have led to the deaths of upwards of 1 billion people over the course of human history. Wars are approved, funded and usually sought by governments. That is the great tragedy. Self-defense against crime is also often overlooked. In 1994 a Dept. of Justice study found that guns are involved in 1.5 million cases of self-defense each year. That is 1.5 million thefts, rapes, murders and other crimes prevented as a result of gun ownership.

We all look for answers and closure, but, when it comes to wanton violence the answer is, there are no satisfactory answers. And we should not be so quick to abandon or wish to curtail one of our most important and fundamental rights. Government has always used tragedy to grab power, it has used fear to usurp the Constitution, and all too often we have let them in the vain search for security. Let us look to ourselves and our culture first.

The peoples of industrialized Germany, Russia, Poland, and France, just to name a few, never thought that one day they would endure the full brunt of Nazi oppression. They never thought there would be the deaths of 40 million people, the loss of religious freedom, or the loss of all freedoms, at the hands of their own governments. They trusted their government for things which government is not meant to do. They handed up responsibility that they were imbued with from God - rights by the very nature of their existence - and in the end they paid dearly. The right to bear arms is the only reason why America exists, without which we would still be a colony.

I don’t have all the answers and I don’t pretend to think that we could have a perfect world if everyone owned a gun, but I do think we would be better prepared to handle these situations. Mass shootings often happen in gun-free zones where even the “security” guards are unarmed. And while I don’t have all the answers, I know the answer is not more control simply from looking at places like Detroit and Chicago which have tight gun regulations and also have an enormous amount of gun violence. Our ancestors took for themselves their inherent rights, which include the responsibilities that go with them, and our Founders wrote them into law, a law that can only be changed via new amendments.

Just like the Jews of Germany and the whole population of North Korea never thought they would endure what has transpired, we didn’t think the ultimate assault on our freedoms would ever occur. Government rarely grasps for total power in a single sweep, it happens (usually as a result of public outcry and a revocation of personal responsibility) bit by bit. In the past 12 years alone we have seen the near erasure of the 14th Amendment via the PATRIOT Act, military drones prowling the skies over America, attempts to control and censor the Internet with things like SOPA and CISPA, allowing the indefinite detention of citizens via the NDAA 2012, provide for the permanent and warrantless surveillance of every citizen through regulations involving the National Counterterrorism Center and much more.

Perhaps not today, maybe 20 or 30 years from now, we could easily be sitting and watching our government turn into something absolutely horrible. Why give them a willing public? Why be those silent dissenters of 1933? At first they asked for control of the press, then guns, then the mentally handicapped, then the disabled, then gays, then Jews and before it was over 60 million died as a result of Germany and Japan with over 40 million European refugees. How can we trust them with the power to regulate, so strongly, one of our most basic rights when the federal government has consistently shown itself to be untrustworthy, corrupt and power hungry? The folks in Washington DC are no more equipped, or wise, to govern us than any other citizen. If you yourself haven’t the wisdom to control the nation, then why give it to them?

This isn't an argument against any and all gun laws. Clearly those with violent criminal histories or documented severe mental disturbances should not have the ability to purchase or legally carry a gun. This is simply an attempt to show that when it comes to these types of tragedies, more control isn't an answer. Demanding that a class filled with children be left undefended or that thousands of university students shouldn't be allowed to exercise their inherent rights, this only results in millions being even more vulnerable to mass shootings. At the Oct. 1, 2015 shooting at Umpqua Community College in Oregon, where thousands of students attend, there was only one security guard who was unarmed.

When we allow a government or some committee (federal, state, local) to make choices for all of us, if that choice is a bad one we all suffer. In this case the choice is literally between life and death. I trust myself to defend my rights and life far more than I trust a bloated and inept government. Why should I, why should we, allow them to force us into a position of relying on them for our own safety?

--Jacob Bogle, Originally published on Dec. 19, 2012. Updated on Oct. 3, 2015 and June 13, 2016.
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(I feel this is a very important issue and would like to add to the conversation. If you agree with this article please feel free to share it with others. Re-post, re-blog, send it to websites or friends, post it on Facebook etc. Just include a link back to this page.)

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Mitt Romney and His "Strongest Military" Pledge

Dear Mitt Romney,

Please take a moment to re-asses your notion of America's military might.

As a member of the Federation of American Scientists, a group dedicated to nuclear non-proliferation, I have had the opportunity to study US and international military powers.

Your commitment to enlarging the US military to such a size that would "make it impossible for anyone to oppose us" is frankly absurd. Aside from the face we already have a military decades ahead of any other it is impossible to maintain a military that would eliminate any and all threats.

The idea that any blue-water navy nation would attack us is something that is not in the realm of possibility. What is possible is having rogue nations or terrorists groups attack us. The problem is that countries like Iran have no capability to attack us directly and there is no solution to "terrorism" since it is nothing but a tactic carried out by small bands of individuals and even a military twice our current size couldn't hope to stop all acts of terror without shredding the Constitution.

If you look at Iran, the "long-range" missile they recently tested only had a range of 125 miles. The US has dozens of missile types with ranges from 1,000 to over 8,000 miles directly and world-wide given our air and sea delivery platforms.


Please consider theses facts.


The United States Navy is the most powerful navy on Earth. In fact our Navy outweighs, battle fleet tonnage, the next 13 largest navies combined. We also have 75 nuclear powered submarines. On the other hand Russia only has 24 nuclear powered subs with that number expected to be reduced to 20 over the next few years.

Our Navy also has 11 aircraft carriers, the total number of aircraft carriers world-wide is only 21. On top of our massive naval capabilities the US Navy owns some 3.3 million acres of land along with bases in over a dozen foreign lands.

The US spends some $700 billion a year on "defense" compared to $190 billion a year for China, the world's 2nd largest military spender. Iran spent $7 billion.

The NSA (National Security Agency) intercepts, daily, 4-7 times the amount of information held within the Library of Congress.

Of the nearly $800 billion we spent in Iraq some 600,000 civilians were killed, yet only 23,000 "insurgents" were and the number of attacks do not seem to have changed a great deal. This demands that we rethink our tactics and the reasons why people attack us. The notion that it's because we're free or rich simply doesn't pass muster. I do not recall any attacks against Switzerland or Fiji.

The problem isn't that our military is too small or weak or even could become potentially weak. The problem is engaging in multiple, non-declared, wars and policies that directly harm the security of the United States.

A little bit of history will show you that it was our direct involvements in the affairs of other nations that led them to being our enemies. For example, there have been over 50 years of non-stop meddling in the sovereign affairs of Iran, including the overthrow of a duly elected government.

We trained, supplied and paid for Bin Laden as well as gave him cause for concern due to our military presence in Saudi Arabia.

We have maintained strong sanctions and military threats against Cuba and North Korea for decades and yet the only thing it's done has caused those nations (and others) to unit together against what they see as a common foe. On top of strengthening their leadership it has also led to the deaths of millions in famine and other disasters.

However, if you take the case of Vietnam, after loosing 50,000 American lives we decided brute force wasn't the answer. Today we actively trade with them and tourism is on the rise. A similar case for peace can easily be made if you look at the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both nations had the capability of destroying one another and the USSR made many similar statements about our destruction as Iran has made about us and others. However, instead of invading, we had a leader with enough wisdom to talk.

The US does not have the moral or legal authority to lay claim to any territory other than our own nor do we have the right to dictate what other nations can do, even if we don't like it.

I urge you to reconsider your plan for massive military buildup, your ideas of un-ending warfare and to please recognize that sometimes when the US does something it causes harm and instead of promoting those policies we should step back from them and look to other options which will save lives. Sec. of State Albright may have thought the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi civilians was justified during our 10 year bombing campaign in the 1990s but I assure you, your Mormon faith does not and neither do the American people.

--Jacob Bogle

For additional information about Americas thirst for peace please check out this link:
www.wecanwin.org

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Herman Cain, Real Change or Status-quo "Lite"?

Herman Cain entered the race as an underdog. His personality quickly garnered him a number of supporters and his plain speaking and lack of political correctness made it sound like Mr. Cain was a new kind of candidate, a candidate not part of the establishment and someone who might actually shake up the system. And if elected, could put America on the right track.

During the first several months of the campaign he had great difficulty breaking into double digits in national polls and was usually listed 5th or 6th out of 9 main candidates. Despite the small showings there was a lot of talk about him and his ideas from many leading media outlets and popular radio talk shows. However it wasn’t until the debate in Florida where he talked about his personal triumph over cancer and was able to talk more about his “9-9-9” tax plan that brought him great success in the Florida GOP straw poll where he won with 37% of the vote; his nearest rival, Rick Perry, came in with only 15%.

The Florida straw poll results brought about a flurry of media attention and were seen as a possible GOP establishment “stamp-of-approval” given the fact that the poll voters were mostly state GOP members and local leaders. Some even suggested, before the poll, that whoever won would get the party nomination.

Cain’s surge issued a challenge to all to re-think his candidacy and signaled, to some, that it was time he became “top-tier”.  Despite raising very little money, having no political experience and admitting on several occasions his lack of knowledge on certain topics, this simple win pushed him to the top in the media’s eye and soon after he was tied with Rick Perry for 2nd place nationally.

Of course in the two weeks after the Florida debate the entire race seemed to shake up. Romney returned to first place, Perry fell by over 10 points, and Cain and Newt Gingrich displaced Ron Paul landing him in 5th place. However, none of this really matters if the message behind the candidate is flawed or just plain bad.

With this apparent shake-up it becomes increasingly important to take an in-depth look at the positions of Herman Cain and allow the public to decide in the end who is and isn’t the best candidate.
After 8 years of G.W. Bush and nearly 3 years of Obama America is ready for real change, but not change for the sake of change, positive change leading the nation in the best direction. If Cain is now top-tier and may become the Republican nominee we must ask ourselves, does Cain offer real solutions or is he simply another candidate defending the status-quo Americans are so tired of, only in a “lite” version?

1. Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 tax plan is very simple and because of that it has a lot of appeal. One of the “9s” is a federal sales tax which is added on top of state and local sales taxes. There are 45 states that have some form of a sales tax with many states charging an average of 7% and in Illinois the maximum is a whopping 11.5% tax. This plan is billed as one to level the playing field and create a “fair” tax system. What many don’t realize is that the richest Americans spend less overall as a percentage of their income than the poorest so in reality lower-income families will end up paying a greater share of their income to sales taxes than will the richest. Any plan that adds taxes to everyday items like food and clothing is a tax that will hurt middle and lower income families far more than those with higher incomes. And while a 9% income tax may sound great the reality is for millions of Americans you will end up paying more in taxes. The very poorest Americans pay less than 3% in income taxes and then usually end up getting a refund and pay, for the year, a net tax of 0%.  Under his plan these most vulnerable will end up paying 3 times their current tax rate and won’t be getting anything back.

For upper-middle and high income families his 9-9-9 plan works out very good but for most Americans, and the poorest, it only amounts to less money for bills and more money to the government.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/story/2011-10-10/herman-cain-9-9-9-tax-plan/50723976/1

2. American was founded on the idea of freedom for all and the right to worship as one sees fit. The 1st amendment isn’t something you can apply to one group but not another, everyone has the freedom of religion. You would think a presidential candidate would understand this and a conservative candidate would hold it most dear to his heart. Sadly, Cain has allowed personal prejudice to cloud his judgment and would support communities that would try and limit the 1st amendment. Hatred and misunderstandings aside peaceful Muslims have every right to build mosques and preach Islam. Under Cain it seems Americans should have the right to ban mosques which is a direct violation of the Constitution. Herman Cain has also said on several occasions that he doesn’t trust Muslims, wouldn’t appoint them and feels they aren’t as loyal as any other group. This is a gross showing of hatred and no amount of backpedaling can cover up the vial words he said.   
When you misunderstand or simply don’t respect the spirit of the Constitution and when you single out entire segments of the population you have lost any credibility to lead the nation. The saying “the road to hell is paved with good intentions” might prove prophetic when culling civil rights for “security”.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/0711/Cain_Americans_should_have_right_to_ban_mosques.html
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/herman-cain-digs-deeper-on-fox-many-muslims-%E2%80%98are-not-dedicated-to-this-country%E2%80%99

3. Cain has also flip-flopped on the issue of the assassination of an American citizen, Anwar al-Awlaki. While al-Awlaki may have been a bad guy he was still a citizen and the government is prevented by the Constitution from taking the life of a citizen without a trial. In America simply being accused of something is not the same as being convicted and this is another concept anyone who wants to lead must understand. The fundamental right to life and trial must never be withheld from any American because it opens the door for far worse. History has shown us time and time again that the only outcome of execution without trial, of picking who has rights and who doesn’t, is tyranny.
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/9256-herman-cain-flip-flops-on-killing-of-awlaki

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/10/herman-cain-flip-flopped-on-the-killing-of-anwar-al-awlaki/246084

4. Herman Cain used to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and has said that the FED needs no audit. In fact he said that if the public wanted to know something all we had to do was ask. This is something the American public has tried to do, as has congress, but with little success. The Federal Reserve is the most secretive part of our government and is also one of the most powerful. It actively engages in activities with no congressional oversight, and has no real mandate to answer for any errors it makes. It spends more money than congress and is responsible for the devaluation of currency. The FEDs activities are seen as so corrupt and suspicious that 18 Senators and 183 Representatives have co-sponsored HR 459 and S 202 the “Audit the Fed” bill. The National Tax Payers Union, Americans for Tax Reform, Young Americans for Liberty, the Center for Fiscal Responsibility and Freedom Works (along with many others) have all advocated an audit of the FED. Yet Chairman Cain sees little reason to, after all the FED is an open book in his eyes.
http://theintelhub.com/2011/05/08/herman-cain-exposed-no-need-to-audit-the-federal-reserve

4.  Abortion is an issue that ignites the passion of many Americans both for and against but one area where most agree is that in the case of incest or rape woman should have the right to get an abortion. Herman Cain on the other hand does not. He even signed a pledge saying he would ban all abortions even in those extreme cases.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/05/herman-cain-abortion-planned-parenthood-2004-campaign_n_996631.html

5. One skill a president must have is the ability to connect with the people diplomatically, especially if the main national problem is strongly affecting the domestic population. In the past he has come out against Muslims and then feigned an apology. During an interview when asked about the “Occupy Wall Street” movement he said “Don't blame Wall Street, don't blame the big banks -- if you don't have a job and you're not rich, blame yourself.” Several days later he backpedaled and said that the comments were only aimed at the protesters and then later he said that the comment wasn’t aimed at the people but was an attempt to say “Washington is the problem” and that the protesters should move their efforts there. But the truth is a president needs to say what he/she means and needs to be careful when chastising the populace. Nothing Cain said during the original comment would lead one to think that he wasn’t blaming the 14 million un-employed for their joblessness. For a man who tries to be the underdog who made millions from nothing he sure has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth and forgets that it was both Washington and Wall Street lobbyists who played a large role in the economic downturn.  
http://thyblackman.com/2011/10/06/raising-cain-herman-cain%E2%80%99s-irrational-ideology

There are many other issues that if examined shows Herman Cain to be nothing more than a big government, pro-war candidate who only pretends to be different. Herman Cain said the economy was fine before the collapse, he supported the bailouts, supports the continuation of wars, refuses any form of diplomacy with N. Korea (which only leaves force), and said that we need more leaders like President Bush. 

It is more than clear that what we don’t need is 4 more years of war and economic hardship and that is all we will get under Cain. During the debate at Dartmouth on 10/11/11 he said that he doesn’t care about what bills can be passed he only cares about what will work. Even if we ignore the fact his tax plan won’t work it matters little if something doesn’t get passed into law. With each passing day we see how unprepared Cain is to lead and how out of step with reality he seems to be. 

There is only one answer, Ron Paul. He saw the recession before it occurred and offered real solutions. He understands the root-cause of terrorism and respects the Constitution. Only Ron Paul realizes that without a strong currency any discussion on taxes, jobs or the economy will be flawed and that to secure our economic future we must re-examine the Federal Reserve system. And unlike everyone else Ron Paul has remained consistent and voted consistently for 30 years with no scandals, no special interests and has never voted for an unbalanced budget, doesn’t participate in the lucrative congressional retirement program, never voted to raise taxes and has never voted for an increase in power for the Executive Branch.

Jacob Bogle 10/12/11
Pro-bailouts: http://004eeb5.netsolhost.com/hc133.htm (article by Herman Cain)

Pro-war: http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/rep_bios.php?rep_id=98516477&category=views&id=20110526130557

Additional:
http://www.tomwoods.com/cain

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Obama's Broken Promises and Ron Paul

Obama’s Broken Promises


In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president on a message of change and hope. Despite his limited experience in government and non-existent experience in business he was elected with the largest popular vote in US history1. And with Americans being tired of a multi-year war, troubled economic outlook there was every reason to look at this young, magnetic and up-beat person with a sense of hope. Finally, a man who wasn't from a political dynasty, who came from nothing bringing a message most Americans had wanted for decades…change you could believe in. Of course few really thought about what his idea of “change” meant. He may have been inexperienced, but your average voter saw in him potential. Little did they expect to get a president who reacted rather than led, who denied the notion that America was not the same as every other countrya, who would fill his administration with and take advice from radicals, known terrorists2 and special interest groups.

While campaign blips like “electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket”3 caused some to question this brave new world he planned, the promise of transparency, clean energy independence, secure public services, ending wars etc. was far too great to offer any real obstacle. He made many promises and a tired, desperate America was ready to believe, no matter the cost.

Obama had a very large following of young voters, college students and far-left liberals. Their focus on war, energy and domestic policy made promises like closing Guantanamo Bay and expanding government “protections” seemed to solidify the idea that Obama was an honest man who would do what he said. There has never been a candidate who was able to fulfill, entirely, every promise made but the thought of out-right lies never crossed their mind.

So why is it that in July 2011, half-way through his presidency, are the people who supported him most leaving the “Obama train” in droves? And even worse (from the left’s perspective) why is it that no name candidates in 2008 like Ron Paul are today coming within the margin of error to tying or even beating him in some polls?4 The answer is fairly simple, Americans have seen the kind of change Obama desires and even die-hard supporters can’t ignore the ever growing list of broken promises, hypocrisy and lack luster leadership since his first days in office.


The following is a list of examples that have been cited by multiple sources5 as of 7/2011:

1. Create a foreclosure prevention fund for homeowners.-Broken
2. End income tax for seniors making less than $50,000. -Broken
3. End no-bid contracts above $25,000. -Broken
4. Sign the Employee Free Choice Act (pro-union). -Broken
5. Prevent companies in bankruptcy from giving company executives bonuses. -Broken
6. Allow imported prescription drugs. -Broken
7. Mandate autism treatment in insurance coverage. -Broken
8. Close Guantanamo Bay. -Broken
9. Double the Peace Corps. -Broken
10. Allow 5 days for the public to read and comment on bills before signing them. -Broken
11. Create rules against lobbying and political appointees. -Broken
12. Urge States to treat same-sex couples with the same equality as heterosexuals in their adoption laws. -Broken
13. Restore the Superfund program (cleans up highly polluted sites). -Broken
14. Support a human mission back to the moon by 2020. -Broken
15. Reduce earmarks to 1994 levels. -Broken
16. Require a “plug-in” fleet at the White House. -Broken
17. Recognize the Armenian genocide. -Broken
18. No tax increases on families making less than $250,000/yr. -Broken
19. Televise all health care reform talks on C-SPAN. – When John McCain asked Obama about this in 2010 Obama replied “the campaign is over, John” *a
20. Introduce a comprehensive immigration bill in his first year. -Broken
21. Restrict warrantless wiretaps. -Broken
22. Secure the borders. Obama “We need tougher border security…” Janet Napolitano later announced in 2010 that $50 million had in planned stimulus funds for border security had been diverted to other project.*a
23. Enforce “PAYGO” rules. -Broken
24. Sign the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. -Broken
25. Restore habeas corpus rights for enemy combatants. -Broken
26. Make White House communications about regulatory policy-making public. -Broken
27. Include sexual orientation and gender identity in the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. -Broken
28. Increase the minimum wage to $9.50/hr by 2011. -Broken


Additional actions that went against his promises or that have hurt America.
1. Added a war in Libya and Yemen. –Lied about stopping undeclared wars.
2. Said we won’t be taking an active role in Libya or maintaining the “no-fly zone”. –Lied. We have spent over $500 million in Libya and led dozens of bombing runs.
3. Gave $2 billion to Brazil for off-shore drilling. –Gave it to Brazil soon after the “Deepwater Horizons” oil spill and had called for halting all US drilling for environmental causes. Brazil however has a very poor record in environmental protection.

(Note: This is simply a list of broken promises and hypocritical actions by Obama. It does not mean that I do or don’t support them)
All of this makes it clear that Obama was never fit to be president and that to allow him a further four years at the head of the most powerful nation in world history is irresponsible. However, all is not lost. Despite the Democrats being saddled with an exposed message of busted promises and failed leadership America is not condemned (should voters see the light) to continue living in a nation nearing an abyss. There is another choice and a choice who has proven leadership, experience, and trustworthiness - Ron Paul.

Even though few in national leadership are actually in it for the nation Ron Paul has been a staunch supporter and defender of the American way, the Constitution, limited government and personal responsibility. As is often the case, the mainstream media and political machines have tried to down play Dr. Paul’s accomplishments and message because they’re afraid of losing power. Nevertheless, voters are tired of being told what to do and who to vote for, and despite being called “radical” or “not having a chance” the reality on the ground is far different.

For more than 20 years Dr. Paul has maintained the same message, has voted consistently more than any other person in congress and his predictions that were laughed at in 1998 and 2008 have now come true and even those who laughed at him are now quoting Dr. Paul and trying to be the new “Dr. No”. Of course there can only be one and Ron Paul, while shining above all other candidates in message, truth, character, and principle is now beginning to take the lead in the polls, among the people and when paired with Obama levels the field. As proof that Dr. Paul’s candidacy is beating the establishments attempt at marginalization I’d like to give you a few facts.
During the 2011 2nd quarter fundraising period Ron Paul raise $4.5 million, coming in second to Romney (a multi-millionaire and big government supporter). Despite coming in second in total donations Paul out raised all candidates in MS, ND and OK and also out raised Romney in MN. Paul was the second highest fundraiser in 26 other states6.

With his message of peace and smart international relations (as well as being the only candidate to serve in the military) Rep. Paul out raised all candidates in donations from active military personnel7.

One of the biggest issues people point to for his “un-electability” is Rep. Paul’s desire to end entitlement programs. Dr. Paul, who is a working physician, believes that programs like Social Security are unconstitutional and would develop a plan to allow those entering the workforce to opt out of it, keep those who rely on it now on a solvent Social Security program and then gradually phase it out without hurting the elderly and disabled. As David Weidner of the Wall Street Journal said “Mr. Paul faces an electorate that, like it or not, is dependent on Washington. Nearly $2 of every $10 in personal income, about $2.3 trillion…It's hard for most of us to vote against programs so obviously boosting our bottom lines.”8 

Of course, that’s the whole point. Nearly 1 in 4 Americans are on some sort of welfare, far above the number intended when these programs were instituted under FDR. Which means either the US is rapidly turning into a third world country or those in charge understand something most seem not too, if you give people money and cause them to become reliant on you then they are less likely to limit your power and will in fact be more willing to give you more power. When we surrender our liberties for “protection” and when we give up our obligation to self responsibility then we lose both liberty and protection and we become a virtual slave to those who provide us services.

As we have seen in Europe the more you give people the less willing they are to work, to further educate themselves and to provide for their own well-being. Today 60 million people take entitlements, nearly 45% of the working population pay no income taxes and we have allowed ourselves to be subjected to government sponsored molestation under the TSA. Ron Paul wants to reverse this and give us back the power to live our own lives, succeed by our own merit, own our failures and maintain our liberties.

In the polls Rep. Paul has the following record**:

WON – Republican Leadership Conference Straw Poll, New Orleans. Paul 612 votes, Romney 74

WON – CPAC Straw Poll, Paul 30%, Romney 23%
WON – Texas GOP Poll, Paul 22%, Gov. Perry 17%, Romney >10%

Paul 37% vs. Obama 41%, Rasmussen 7/2011. In this poll Obama scores lowest against any candidate when matched against Ron Paul.

Paul 50% vs. Obama 50%, Harris Interactive 7/2011.

With Obama’s record of lies and failed accomplishments and Ron Paul’s 21 year history of consistent voting and intellectual honesty there can be no question about who should be the next president, Ron Paul.



Jacob Bogle, 7/30/2011 jacob_bogle@yahoo.com www.jacobboglewrites.com


References
1. 2008 votes - 62,438,115 Obama/55,380,169 McCain. http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheday/2008/11/05/Obama-Dems-win-historic-blowout-victory/UPI-40391225895936, 2008

2. A- William Ayers http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/rep_bios.php?rep_id=18222976&category=scandals&id=1223404002071008

C- Van Jones http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=108441

4. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110727006213/en/Ron-Paul-Splits-Vote-Obama-Poll

5. A- http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/

6. http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/pnational.do?candId=P00000001&electionYr=2012
8. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303406104576444132029607012.html

A. American exceptionalism denied - http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/1708, by John R. Bolton 2009


** Polls, in order
1. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/167207-ron-paul-wins-republican-leadership-conference-straw-poll
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/12/cpac-straw-poll-2011-ron-paul_n_822412.html#s237999&title=Rep_Michele_Bachmann
3. http://www.thestatecolumn.com/capitol/ron-paul-wins-texas-gop-poll
4.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_41_ron_paul_37
5.http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/mid/1508/articleId/840/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/Default.aspx

Sources

1.http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/
2. http://www.fec.gov

4. http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/4701/long-post-complete-list-obama-statement-expiration-dates